Disclaimer: Here in the Office of Communications, we spend nearly as much time trying to predict the date of Flunk Day as students do, because we have no inside knowledge. This is all idle speculation on our parts.

It's spring, and one question is on everyone's mind: When is Flunk Day?

We don't know. (We really, really, don't know.) But we did take a closer look at the last 32 Flunk Days, going back to the year 1986, to make a few cautious observations about when this beloved Knox tradition is most likely to occur.

It's more likely to happen on a Tuesday than a Wednesday.

Flunk Day has fallen on a Tuesday 12 times in the last 32 years, most recently in 2017. Monday Flunks are the second most common (10 occurrences, including 2014), with Wednesdays coming in third (eight occurrences, most recently in 2015).

But does the cycle indicate a Thursday Flunk in 2018?

Thursday Flunk Days are rare but appear to favor years ending in eight. The most recent was in 2008, preceded by one in 1988. Could this be the year?

Editor's note: An intrepid Facebook commenter pointed out that Flunk Day 2017 was Thursday, May 4. Which kind of ruins our theory! 

Friday Flunk Days: An impossibility?

Sadly, if the mythical Friday Flunk Day has happened even once, no one managed to record it for posterity.

Don't be surprised if Flunk Day doesn't happen until May.
Since 1986, Flunk Day has taken place in May on 23 separate occasions, compared with just nine April Flunk Days. Given the unusually late arrival of spring weather this year, though, that's probably for the best.