Disclaimer: As usual, the following was written entirely without knowledge of the hallowed Flunk Date or of basic statistical analysis. 

As we move into April, our minds turn to one thing: When is Flunk Day this year?

We don't know. (We really, really, don't know.) But we did take a closer look at the last 33 Flunk Days, going back to the year 1986, to make a few cautious observations about when it seems most likely to occur. Here are this year’s findings.

It won’t be May 4. Every year, certain staff members hope the Flunk Day theme will be “May the Flunk Be with You” and that the event will take place on May the fourth—and every year, we are disappointed. And so it is this year: The announced theme is “Flunkin’ under the Sea,” and May 4 is unfortunately a Saturday.

It probably won't happen before April 17. There have been just three Flunk Days celebrated before that date since 1986—in 1988 (April 14), 2002 (April 16), and 2006 (April 11).

In fact, don’t be surprised if it doesn’t happen until May. In the past 33 years, Flunk Day has taken place in May on 24 separate occasions, compared with just nine April Flunk Days.

Tuesday is the most common day to Flunk. Eleven Flunk Days of the last 33 have taken place on a Tuesday. Monday is the second most popular day (10), with Wednesday a close third (9). Friday's count remains at 0.

You probably still have some time to get ready (probably!). Since 1986, there have been 15 Flunk Days—a whopping 45 percent—during the first week of May. THIS COULD BE HUGE.