Ole J. Forsberg

Meet Professor Forsberg

he, him, his

Years at Knox: 2016 to present

Email Professor Forsberg: ojforsberg@knox.edu

Hello. I’m Dr. F, and I am proof that you don’t have to choose just one path. I am an Associate Professor of Mathematics - Statistics at Knox College, but I also hold a PhD in Political Science. Why both? Early in my career, I used political science tools to study war and terrorism. But when I looked back at my own statistical methods, I felt a bit embarrassed by what I saw. So, instead of ignoring that feeling, I went back to school at Johns Hopkins and Oklahoma State University to earn that second PhD in Statistics. Today, my job is to live in the space between these two worlds. I get to use hard math to answer soft, messy questions about how people actually behave—specifically, whether elections are truly "free and fair".

At Knox, my research isn't something I do alone behind a closed door. I wrote my book, Understanding Elections through Statistics, specifically for undergraduate students and the general public—people who are tired of hearing about "fake polls" and want to know what the numbers actually mean. I also work directly with Knox students on real research, like analyzing election fairness in Nigeria. I believe that statistics is really just a way of thinking clearly about uncertainty. Whether we are testing an election for fraud or trying to predict who will win in November, the goal is the same: to cut through the noise and figure out what the evidence actually says. If you are curious about why polls get it wrong, how we catch cheaters, or just want to see what happens when a statistician reads the news with a healthy dose of skepticism, come find me.

Education

Ph.D., Statistics, 2014, Oklahoma State University.
M.S.E., Applied Mathematics and Statistics, 2010, John Hopkins University.
Ph. D., Political Science, 2006, University of Tennessee.
M.A., Political Science, 2005, University of Tennessee.
M.A.T., Secondary Education: Mathematics and Science Education, 1992, John Hopkins University.
B.S., Mathematics, 1990, University of Portland.

Teaching Interests

Statistics, Probability, Elections

Selected Professional Accomplishments

Honors/Grants

• Conference Travel Allocation (2025)
• Carl E. Marshall Award for Outstanding PhD Graduate in Statistics, Oklahoma State University (2015)
• Outstanding TA for the College Arts and Sciences, Oklahoma State University (2014)
• Creighton University Graduate School Academic Grant  (2007)
• "Torchbearer" Lecturer, Department of Political Science, University of Tennessee (2006)
• Department of Political Science Graduate Student Conference Travel Grant (Spring 2005)
• Department of Political Science Graduate Student Development Grant (Spring 2005)
• Yates Dissertation Fellowship, University of Tennessee: $15,000 (2005)
• Pi Sigma Alpha National Honor Society, University of Tennessee (2005)
• Graduate Fellow, American Academy of Political and Social Science (2004)
• Delta Epsilon Sigma National Honor Society, University of Portland (1990)
• Alpha Lambda Delta National Honor Society, University of Portland (1987)

Books

Forsberg, Ole J. (2026). Linear Models and Rurità Kràlovstvì. LibreText Statistics. 
URL: https://stats.libretexts.org/Courses/Knox_College/Linear_Models_and_Rurita_Kralovstvi

Forsberg, Ole J. (2024). Understanding Elections through Statistics: Polling, Prediction, and Testing (2nd ed.). CRC Press.

Forsberg, Ole J. (2020). Understanding Elections through Statistics: Polling, Prediction, and Testing. CRC Press.

Forsberg, Ole J. "R for Starters, v0.57721." March 17, 2015.
URL: http://rfs.kvasaheim.com/.

Forsberg, Ole J. (2012). Terrorism and Nationalism Theory, Causes and Causers. Neue Ausg. ed. Saarbrücken: AV Akademikerverlag.

Forsberg, Ole J. (2008). Terrorism and Nationalism Theory, Causes and Causers. Saarbrücken: AV Akademikerverlag.

Peer-Reviewed

Solomon, Benjamin G., Forsberg, Ole J., Thomas, M., Penna, B, & Weisheit, Katherine. M. (2022). "A Comparison of Priors When Using Bayesian Regression to Estimate Oral Reading Fluency Slopes." Assessment for Effective Intervention, 47(4), 234-244.

Solomon, Benjamin G., & Forsberg, Ole J. (2017). "Bayesian Asymmetric Regression as a Means to Estimate and Evaluate Oral Reading Fluency Slopes." School Psychology Quarterly, 32(4), 539-551.

Forsberg, Ole J., and Mark E. Payton. "Are Political Polls Telling Us What We Need to Know? The Eroding of Battleground State Presidential Polling Performances." Statistics and Public Policy 2, no. 1 (2015). doi:10.1080/2330443X.2015.1034389.

Forsberg, Ole J. "Liberal versus Conservative: Do terrorist groups care which party is in power?" in Democracy and Global Security: The Proceedings of the Second Istanbul Conference on Democracy and Global Security. Ankara, Turkey: ONCU Press, 2007.

Forsberg, Ole J. "Another Shot at the Democratic Peace: Are Democracies More Aggressive than Non-Democracies in Militarized Interstate Disputes?" Journal of Humanities and Social Science 1, no. 2 (2007). http://www.scientificjournals.org/journals2007/articles/1220.pdf

Other

Forsberg, Ole J. (2025, April 17). "Why politicians manipulate statistics — and what to do about it." Nature, 640(2025) 875-877. 
doi: 10.1038/d41586-025-01234-5

Forsberg, Ole J. (2024, October 21). "Dictators, disinformation, disputed outcomes and more: must-read books for a big election year: Centennial Crisis." Nature, 634(2024), 776-777.
doi: 10.1038/d41586-024-03404-3

Forsberg, Ole J. (2021, February). "US election polls: a quick postmortem." Significance, 18(1): 4-5.

Forsberg, Ole J. (2020, October). "Polls and the US presidential election: real or fake?" Significance, 17(5): 6-7.

Forsberg, Ole J. (2016, November 9). "Reports of the death of polling have been greatly exaggerated," The Conversation.

Payton, Mark E., and Ole J. Forsberg. (2015, August 6). "Statistics Professors Give Fox News a B- on Their Big Polling Test." The Conversation.

Payton, Mark E., and Ole J. Forsberg. (2015, August 4). "Polling is More Complex than Fox News Boss Roger Ailes Wants You to Know." The Conversation.

Schryver, Jack, Line Pouchard, Ole Forsberg, Sophia Moskalenko, Steve Pampinella. "Social Science of Group Conflict and Violence." Prepared for and Funded by the Department of Homeland Security S&T Human Factors Division. Location: Oak Ridge National Laboratory. 2008.

Forsberg, Ole J. Encyclopedia of American Parties and Elections. Edited by Larry J. Sabato and Howard Ernst. New York: Facts on File, 2006: "At-Large Elections"; "Voting by Mail"

Forsberg, Ole J. Encyclopedia of Civil Rights and Liberties. Edited by Otis Stephens, John Scheb, and Kara Stooksbury. Westport, CT: Greenwood Press, 2006: "The Polygraph"; "In re Quirin"; "Classical Conservatism"; "Johnson v. Eisentrager"

Feldman, David L., Jennie R. Cassie, Ole J. Forsberg. "Regional Efforts to Deploy Clean Coal Technologies: Impacts and implications for water supply and quality." Prepared for the Southern States Energy Board. Funded by the US Department of Energy and the Southeast Water Supply Initiative. 2004.

Presentations

Invited

"L’indépendance de la statistique publique pour répondre aux besoins de la société." Institut de France (3 Mazarium). June 19, 2026.

"The Independence of Official Statistics to Meet the Needs of Society." Oklahoma Conference on Statistics, Biostatistics and Data Science. Oklahoma State University - Stillwater, OK, October 13-14, 2025.

"Modeling the Free and Fair Election." Department of Mathematics, Texas A&M University - Kingsville, March 2015, Kingsville, TX.

"Mahinda Rajapaksa and Electoral Forensics: An investigation into the past three Sri Lankan presidential elections." Department of Mathematics, University of Michigan - Dearborn, January 2015, Dearborn, Michigan.

"Five Elections and Two Regimes in Egypt." Department of Statistics, Oklahoma State University, November 2014, Stillwater, Oklahoma.

"Polls in the United States: Getting information from the nation." Department of Statistics, Oklahoma State University, November 2012, Stillwater, Oklahoma.

"Liberal versus Conservative: Do terrorist groups care which party is in power?" Second Istanbul Conference on Democracy and Global Security, June 2007, Istanbul, Turkey.

Other Academic

"Free and Fair? Investigating the results of the 2010 Sri Lankan presidential election." International Studies Association-Midwest, November 2011, St. Louis, MO.

"Does it Really Matter: Does the definition of terrorism really matter in the case of ‘The Troubles' of Northern Ireland (1969-2002)?" Western Political Science Association, March 2008, San Diego, CA.

"Government Orientation as a Correlate of Terrorism: Do terror groups respond to the level of parliamentary conservatism?" Nordic International Studies Association, May 2007, Odense, Denmark.

"Terror and the Ballot Box: Do terror groups respond to a government's political orientation?" Comparative Interdisciplinary Studies, July 2006, The Hague, Netherlands.

"Political Parties and Terrorism: Another reason democracies are more prone to domestic terrorism." International Studies Association, March 2006, San Diego, CA.

"Political Parties, Terrorism, and a Formal Theory." International Studies Association-South, November 2005, Miami, FL.

"Democracies as a Target of Terrorism: Open societies and political parties." International Studies Association-Midwest, October 2005, St. Louis, MO.

"Ethnonational Terrorism: An empirical theory of indicators at the State level, 1985-2000." World International Studies, August 2005, Istanbul, Turkey.

"The Democratic Peace Thesis and the First Use of Force." International Studies Association-Midwest, November 2004, St. Louis, MO.